Some weeks ago I wrote an article about social networks where I said Facebook and many others are over valuated. Now AOL is buying Bebo.com for 850 millions… I was wrong? Facebook really has a value of 15 billions???

Well, let’s put this in perspective: in spite of the really doubtfully data we (and all investment analysts) have on social networks traffic, all the money comes from these numbers. Best approach says Facebook has 2.5 to 7 times the Bebo monthly traffic. So, you don’t need to be a mathematician to know that Facebook is valuated in the best case at only 6 billions now, 40% the valuation given by the Microsoft deal. Or maybe Bebo guys are stupid (something I think is not true). They made a great deal, because I’m sure is over valuated too.

Things come worse to Microsoft when you see other key number: active users, as reported by Bebo, are 22 million and 66 million by Facebook, giving Facebook three times the number of users. So, using this one, Facebook has now a value of… 2.5 billions!

As you can see, these kinds of valuation are purely speculative, which confirms my affirmation social networks like Facebook are over valuated. Why? Because social networks are on hype, so an ascendant valuation curve in time are expected. When people speculate in this kind of environments, trends to do it supposing rising prices on future, so today valuation is less than that!!! Remember dot com bubble?

At least, Microsoft lost 144 millions today (60% of their deal). Let’s wait to the next “deal” and see if I were wrong…

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Tags: AOL, Bebo, facebook, microsoft deal, social networks